Analysis of Increasing Human Development Index (HDI) based Forecasting Approches

: The purpose of this study is to analyze strategies for increasing human development index (HDI) in South Bangka Regency, Bangka Belitung Islands Province, Indonesia, from 2010 to 2021 using descriptive analysis and forecasting methods using the exponential method. Human development index is measured by three components are education, health, and a decent standard of living. The results of this study show that increasing the human development index in Bangka Selatan Regency in the short term can be increased by increasing the standard of living component by increasing per capita spending, while the education and health components can be increased in the long term. the results of the forecasting show that from 2023 to 2031, the HDI in South Bangka Regency will continue to increase.


INTRODUCTION
The government plays a role in optimizing economic conditions.One of the tasks of the state is to shape economic policies in such a way that economic benefits can be felt by all levels of society.The goal is the welfare and economic equality, which is felt at all levels of society.In several economic theories, achieving economic prosperity and equity can be achieved through economic development (Maryozi et al., 2022;Samsuddin & Amar, 2020;Siahaan et al., 2022).
The development of a region in the process of achieving success is strongly influenced by human development which can be measured using the HDI (Human Development Index) (Agustin & Rozani, 2022;Fadilah et al., 2022;Muftiyah et al., 2022).HDI is how residents obtain income, health, education, and so on from accessible development outcomes (Maysaroh & Arif, 2022).
The Human Development Index (HDI) is a measure of development based on several fundamental factors of the quality of human life.The quality of human resources is reflected in the level of education, health, and income of the population, these three aspects are the main components of the Human Development Index (HDI).In addition to the growing development that provides decent work opportunities for all levels of society, a decent living guarantees to meet the needs of everyday life.Every Indonesian citizen has the full right to access public services, including education, health, and social services.Improving the quality of human resources also has an impact on better economic growth (Maysaroh & Arif, 2022;Mongan, 2019;Raviyanti et al., 2017) In Table 1 above we can see the provincial human development index (HDI) in the Sumatran region in the last five years, namely from 2017 to 2022.On average, each province has experienced an increase in HDI every year, except for Riau province, which has experienced a decrease in numbers from 2019 by 73 to 72.71 in 2020.Riau Islands Province is the province with the highest HDI rate, which is 75.79 in 2021, while in 2017 it was 74.45, in the last five years it has increased by 1.34.The lowest HDI in the Sumatra region is Lampung Province, where in 2021 it has an HDI of 69.9 and in 2017 it was 68.25, in the last five years it has increased by 1.65.The position of the Bangka Belitung Islands Province in 2021 has an HDI rate of 71.69, and in 2017 it was 69.99, in the last five years it has increased by 1.7.This means that the increase in HDI is caused by three-dimensional factors, namely education, health, and a decent life.
Table 2 below shows the regencies/cities human development index in the Bangka Belitung Islands Province from 2017 to 2021.Pangkalpinang City is the area with the highest HDI rate, namely 78.57 in 2021 and 76.86 in 2017, in the last five years it has increased by 1.71, this increase exceeds the provincial increase of 1.7.The lowest HDI among Regencies/Cities in the Bangka Belitung Islands Province is South Bangka Regency, where in 2021 it was 67.06 and in 2017 it was 65.02, in the last five years it has increased by 2.04.A significant increase in the last five years has not been able to boost the HDI ranking of South Bangka Regency from the caretaker of Regency/City HDI in the Bangka Belitung Islands Province.
The problem in encouraging an increase in the human development index, of course, comes from three dimensional factors of HDI, firstly the health dimension which is calculated from life expectancy at birth, which is the average estimate of the number of years that a person can live from birth, this represents the level of health in an area.The second is the educational dimension which is calculated from a combination of two indicators, namely expected length of schooling and an average length of schooling.Lastly is the dimension of decent living which is measured from the per capita expenditure indicator of each household in an area.For this reason, in increasing the HDI in South Bangka Regency, we need to analyze from these three dimensions, which dimensions have the opportunity to be encouraged, so that an increase in the human development index in South Bangka Regency can be achieved according to what has been targeted so that the success of development in https://equity.ubb.ac.id/index.php/equitydoi 10.33019/equity.v%vi%i.22454 South Bangka Regency can be felt by every layer and the ultimate goal is to improve people's welfare.The introduction presents the background, the phenomenon being studied, the relationship between existing phenomena and theories, the research gap, novelty, rationale, and research objectives.References need to be included in this section, in relation to the justification of the urgency of the research, the emergence of research problems, alternative solutions, and the chosen solution.The degree of up-to-date materials is referenced by looking at the proportions of the last 10 years and referring to the main library.Problems and objectives, as well as the use of research written narratively in paragraphs, do not need to be given a special subtitle, and are not allowed to use bullets and numbering.

LITERATURE REVIEW
Research from (Siahaan et al., 2022) examines the Effect of the Human Development and Education Index on the Open Unemployment Rate in North Sumatra Province in the period 2010 to 2021.The multiple linear regression analysis method is applied in the quantitative research methodology.Secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics of North Sumatra Province is used as a data source.This method revealed that a negative relationship was found between the human development index and education level on the level of activation, which means that when the two variables raised increase, the level of open response will decrease.This shows the need to increase the human development index and education level in North Sumatra in order to reduce the level of open reaction regionally.
Research from (Mahroji & Nurkhasanah, 2022) examines the influence of the human development index on economic growth in Banten province in the period 2019-2021 with the independent variables used, namely education level, health level and standard of living and knowing which factors or variables are more prominent in influencing economic growth in Banten Province.This study uses the Eviews 10 analysis tool with quantitative analysis methods and panel data.The method used in this research is the Fixed Affect Model.The results of the study illustrate that the level of education, health and standard of living have a positive effect on economic growth in Banten Province for the 2019-2021 period and the variable that has a major influence on economic growth in Banten Province in the 2019-2021 range is the level of health.
Research from (Muftiyah et al., 2022)  The results of this study are that education holds a very important position, because with higher education a person will have broad knowledge and analytical skills, so that he is able to solve a problem well.Thus, a person's quality of life will be better in carrying out various tasks that have become his responsibility.
Research from (Maysaroh & Arif, 2022) examines the Analysis of the Role of Physical Special Allocation Funds (SAF) in Improving the Human Development Index (HDI) and Economic Growth in North Sumatra Province.The data collection technique in this research is documentation, namely finding data about things or variables in the form of notes, pictures, books, papers or articles and journals.The results of the study show that SAF which is managed properly and on target will increase the Human Development Index (HDI).
Research from (Sugiantari & Budiantara, 2017) which examined Factor Analysis of Factors Affecting Life Expectancy in East Java Using Spline Semiparametric Regression.The method used to model life expectancy is spline semiparametric regression.The variables that have a significant effect are the infant mortality rate, the proportion of infants aged 0-11 months who are breastfed for 4-6 months, and the variable proportion of children aged 1-4 years who receive complete nutrition.

METHOD
This research is located in South Bangka Regency, Bangka Belitung Islands Province, with the implementation year 2022.This study used secondary data, namely data obtained from publication results and obtained from the Indonesian Statistics (BPS) and the Health Office of the Bangka Belitung Islands Province.In addition, books, literature, articles, and other economic journals that are relevant and support the study are also used.The analytical method used in this research are descriptive analysis and forecasting method by using the exponential method is shown as follows: Ft = Ft1 + α (Dt1 -Ft1) …………………………………………………………………….……….. 1 where :

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Table 3 below shows the development of the human development index (HDI) with its three dimensions, namely Health which is calculated from the life expectancy indicator (LE), the education dimension which is calculated from the indicators of average length of schooling (AS) and expected length of schooling (SE), and the dimension a decent standard of living which is calculated from the per capita expenditure indicator (PP) in South Bangka Regency from 2010 to 2021.It can be seen that from 2010 to 2021 the human development index in South Bangka Regency has continued to increase, even so, the South Bangka Regency has not been able to leave the position of interpreter key ranking among regencies/cities in the South Bangka Islands Province.
According to the measurement of HDI achievements in a region, it can be grouped into four categories, namely, low: HDI < 60, medium: 60 ≤ HDI < 70, high: 70 ≤ HDI < 80, very high: HDI ≥ 80, https://equity.ubb.ac.id/index.php/equitydoi 10.33019/equity.v%vi%i.22456 from Table 4.3.above we can conclude that the HDI of South Bangka Regency is in the moderate category.A low development index can cause developmental problems such as low human resources due to low education, causing people to be unable to compete in the world of work, from a health standpoint, the poor quality of health causes frequent disruptions to public health, in the end, people have difficulty doing optimal work in producing output, if output decreases, it means that people's income also decreases, which causes the level of spending per capita of the community to also decrease, if public spending decreases, the economy in South Bangka Regency will decline.In Table 3 above in the last ten years from 2010 to 2021, the human development index for South Bangka Regency has continued to increase, but it has not been able to move from the medium category to the high category, but when viewed from the development of HDI growth for South Bangka Regency, the highest growth occurred in 2013 of 2.93%, according to the three dimensions, the dimension that most contributed to the increase in HDI in 2013 was the education dimension with the average length of school (AS) indicator which increased by 7.17% from the previous year, also with the expectation indicator length of school (SE) which also experienced the highest growth increase of 6.85%.The increase in the education dimension in 2013 was the highest in the last ten years.This means that what drives the increase in HDI in 2013 is the education dimension, while the dimensions of health and decent living standards have not experienced a significant increase in that year.The second-highest increase in the human development index (HDI) occurred in 2018, which was 1.48%.The dimension that most contributed to the increase in HDI growth in that year was the dimension of a decent standard of living, with an indicator of per capita expenditure of 5.22%, the highest in the last ten years.This increase in per capita expenditure was triggered by an increase in people's income or income that is ready to be spent (disposable income), income increases because people's output also increases, such as increased pepper production from the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors, the mining and quarrying sector, and the wholesale and trade sector.retail; and repair of cars and motorbikes in South Bangka Regency which has led to an increase in people's income.
The lowest growth in the increase in the human development index occurred in 2021 at only 0.24%.This decline was triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic which affected all economic sectors, including the three dimensions of the human development index.In the short term, the dimension that has the most impact is the dimension of a decent standard of living with per capita expenditure indicators.The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted economic mobility including the movement of people as well as goods and services, resulting in a weakening of the economy, and falling demand resulting in a decrease in the production of goods and services in the end, people's incomes have also decreased and welfare has also decreased.The first dimension of the human development index (HDI) is the health dimension as measured by the life expectancy indicator (LE).Life expectancy is the average number of years of life that a newborn baby will live in a given year.Life expectancy in a region is different from other areas depending on the quality of life that can be achieved by the population.Life expectancy indicates the quality of health in an area where elasticity is influenced by several factors such as the ratio of the number of doctors to the population in South Bangka Regency.
In Figure 1 It is known that ratio of general practioners to 100,000 population, both by province and regencies/city, has largely not reached the target ratio of doctors in 2019, which is 45 per 100,000 population.By province, the ratio of doctors in the Bangka Belitung Islands in 2021 will only be 42 per 100,000 population.This figure still has not reached the 2019 national target of 45 per 100,000 population.Regencies/cities that have reached the 2019 national target are Pangkalpinang City (71 per 100,000 population) and Bangka Regency (52 per 100,000 population).Meanwhile, the regency with the lowest ratio is South Bangka Regency (18 per 100,000 population).
From the figure above, we can conclude that South Bangka Regency is the regency with the fewest doctors among the regencies/cities in the South Bangka Islands Province.This shortage of doctors can lead to a decline in the quality of health in South Bangka Regency, such as a decrease in life expectancy, which is an indicator of the human development index (HDI).When there is a shortage of doctors, the treatment of patients will be hampered and not optimal.Table 4 below shows the number of elementary schools, teachers, students, and teacher/student ratios in the Bangka Belitung Islands Province from 2020 to 2021.In 2020 South Bangka Regency has 101 elementary schools with 1329 teacher, and 25560 students.Among the seven regencies/cities in the Bangka Belitung Islands Province, in 2020 the highest ratio of teachers to students will be in the South Bangka Regency at 19.23.Those means that one teacher teaches and educates 19.23 elementary school students in South Bangka Regency.In 2021 South Bangka Regency has added one elementary school a total is 102 schools, also added 22 teachers so that the total is 1352 teachers, but has experienced a decrease in students by 703 students in total to 24857 students, while the ratio of teachers to students has become 18.39 occupies the second highest position after Pangkalpinang City but not far away.This means that one teacher teaches and educates 18.39 elementary school students in South Bangka Regency.The ratio of teachers and students in South Bangka Regency from 2020 to 2021 is still above the average of the Bangka Belitung Islands Province, even so, the ratio of teachers and students to elementary schools in districts/cities in the Bangka Belitung Islands Province has fulfilled it, but has not been able to increase the average length of schooling and long-term expectations of schooling in South Bangka Regency.The problem lies in the quality of teachers who are still not able to increase the motivation of students to continue their interest in going to school from elementary to junior high.

Decent Standard of Living
From Table 5 above we can see the five business fields that contribute the most to the gross regional domestic product (GRDP) of South Bangka Regency from 2017 to 2021 at constant 2010 prices.The agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors are the most promising sectors in Bangka Regency South, it can be seen that this sector is the number one contributor to the GRDP of South Bangka Regency from 2017 to 2021.It can be seen that the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors have continued to experience growth over the past five years, the highest growth occurred in 2020 at 9.53%, second in 2018 at 6.54%.This increase in the growth of the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors was proven in 2018 to encourage an increase in the HDI for South Bangka Regency 2018 from the per capita expenditure indicator.Expenditure per capita Expenditure is obtained from income which is obtained from the output of goods and services.When output increases, income will increase, ultimately https://equity.ubb.ac.id/index.php/equitydoi 10.33019/equity.v%vi%i.22459 increasing per capita expenditure.The dimension of a decent standard of living as measured by per capita expenditure is the one that can change the fastest because the elasticity of the rise or fall of per capita income can change in the short term.Community income derived from production has the most opportunity to be increased, one of which is the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors which have the greatest potential in increasing income, expenditure, and the human development index in South Bangka Regency.The second sector is the mining and quarrying sector because South Bangka Regency is also the largest tin producer in the Bangka Belitung Islands Province.Seen in Table 5 This sector has experienced a decline in growth every year, except for in 2021 it will experience an increase in growth of 8.06%.
Every sector needs to be encouraged to make improvements, not only the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors; the mining and quarrying sector as well as other sectors such as the wholesale and retail trade sector; and repair of cars and motorcycles which occupy the position of number three as the largest contributor to GRDP in South Bangka Regency, the construction sector is number four, and the government administration, defense, and mandatory social security sector is number five.

Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Method
From Table 6 below, we can see the results of forecasting the human development index (HDI) of South Bangka Regency from 2022 to 2026 using the exponential smoothing method.It can be seen that over the next five years from 2022 to 2023 the HDI of South Bangka Regency will continue to increase.In 2022 the HDI for South Bangka Regency will increase to 67.79 or a growth rate of 1.09% from 2021.In 2023 the HDI for South Bangka Regency will increase to 68.45 or an increase of 0.99%.In 2024 the HDI for South Bangka Regency will increase to 69.14 or an increase of 0.99%.In 2025 the HDI for South Bangka Regency rose to 69.81 or an increase of 0.97% and in 2026 the HDI for South Bangka Regency rose to 70.49 or an increase of 0.97%.Following the regional medium-term development plan (RPJMD) for South Bangka Regency, the target HDI for South Bangka Regency in 2026 is 70.9, meaning that South Bangka Regency is out of the medium HDI category and into the high category.The results of the forecasting above show that The South Bangka Regency Government is encouraging increased production of superior commodities: rubber, pepper, and palm oil.Improving superior tourism facilities and infrastructure in South Bangka Regency such as Batu Perahu Beach, Metukul Dam, Salma Island, Penutuk Fort, Gebang Hill, Tukak Mangrove, etc.The South Bangka Regency Government activates the role of active cooperatives spread across the South Bangka Regency and revives the contribution of MSMEs in South Bangka Regency.The South Bangka Regency Government is encouraging increased livestock and poultry production (cattle, goats, free-range and broiler chickens, ducks, and pigs).

Figure 1 .
Figure 1.The Ratio of General Practitioners t 100,000 Residents of Regencies/Cities in the Bangka Belitung Islands Province in 2021 Source: Bangka Belitung Islands Province Health Office N a t i o n a l s T a r g e t 2 0 2 5 N a t i o n a l s T a r g e t 2 0 1 9 B a n g k a B e l i t u n g I s l a n d s P a n g k a l p i n a n g B a n g k a B e l i t u n g C e n t r a l B a n g k a E a s t B e l i t u n g w e s t B a n g k a S o u t h B a n g k a /equity.ubb.ac.id/index.php/equitydoi 10.33019/equity.v%vi%i.22458 .

Table 2 .
Humand Development Index in Bangka Belitung Island Province Program to Accelerate the Improvement of the Human Development Index (HDI) in Banyuwangi Regency.The method used is socialization, training, and discussion.The targets were residents of Bedewang Village, Songgon District and Temuasri Village.

Table 3 .
Human Development Index, Life Expectancy (LE), Average Years of Schooling (AS), Years of School Expectation (SE), and Per Capita Expenditure (PP) in South Bangka Regency Source: BPS of South BangkaRegency (2022)

Table 4 .
Number of Elementary Schools, Teachers, Students, and Teacher/Student Ratios in the Bangka Belitung Islands Province in 2020-2021 Source: BPS of Bangka Belitung Islands Province(2022)

Table 5 .
The Biggest Contribution to Gross Regional Domestic Product in South Bangka Regency 2017-2021 based on Constant Price 2010 ://equity.ubb.ac.id/index.php/equitydoi 10.33019/equity.v%vi%i.22461 provides sports facilities and infrastructure for the community.The South Bangka Regency Government has increased its free medical treatment program for the community.The South Bangka Regency Government is re-collecting BPJS Health data for people who do not yet have BPJS Health.The South Bangka Regency Government has increased health facilities (buildings and equipment), medical and health personnel (especially the number of doctors) https